Fires, Floods, Snow extremes
Breaking news about Wild Land Fires & Floods and snow storms in the Boulder, Colorado area.
CU study: less hail may increase flooding on Front Range
Jan 9th
FROM COLORADO’S FRONT RANGE BY 2070
Summertime hail could all but disappear from the eastern flank of Colorado’s Rocky Mountains by 2070, says a new study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Less hail damage could be good news for gardeners and farmers, said lead author Kelly Mahoney, a research scientist at CIRES, but a shift from hail to rain can also mean more runoff, which could raise the risk of flash floods. “In this region of elevated terrain, hail may lessen the risk of flooding because it takes awhile to melt,” Mahoney said. “Decision makers may not want to count on that in the future.”
For the new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, Mahoney and her colleagues used “downscaling” techniques to try to understand how climate change might affect hail-producing weather patterns across Colorado.
The research focused on storms involving pea-sized and smaller hailstones on Colorado’s Front Range, a region that stretches from the foothill communities of Colorado Springs, Denver and Fort Collins up to the Continental Divide. Colorado’s most damaging hailstorms tend to occur further east and involve larger hailstones not examined in this study.
In the summer in Colorado’s Front Range above about 7,500 feet, precipitation commonly falls as hail. Decision makers concerned about the safety of mountain dams and flood risk have been interested in how climate change may affect the amount and nature of precipitation in the region.
Mahoney and her colleagues began exploring that question with results from two climate models, which assumed that levels of climate-warming greenhouse gases will continue to increase in the future, from about 390 parts per million in the atmosphere today to about 620 parts per million in 2070.
But the weather processes that form hail, like thunderstorms, occur on much smaller scales than can be reproduced by global climate models. So the team “downscaled” the global model results twice: first to regional-scale models that can take regional topography and other details into account, then again to weather-scale models that can resolve individual storms and even the cloud processes that create hail. The regional-scale topography step was completed as part of NCAR’s North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.
Finally, the team compared the hailstorms of the future, from 2041 to 2070, to those of the past, from 1971 to 2000, as captured by the same sets of downscaled models. Results were similar in experiments with both climate models.
“We found a near elimination of hail at the surface,” Mahoney said.
In the future, increasingly intense storms may actually produce more hail inside clouds, the team found. However, because those relatively small hailstones fall through a warmer atmosphere, they melt quickly, falling as rain at the surface or evaporating back into the atmosphere. In some regions, simulated hail fell through an additional 1,500 feet of above-freezing air in the future as compared with the past.
The research team also found evidence that precipitation events over Colorado become more extreme in the future, while changes in hail may depend on the size of the hailstones — results that will be explored in more detail in ongoing work.
Mahoney’s postdoctoral research was supported by the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise, or PACE, program administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and funded by CIRES Western Water Assessment, NOAA and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. PACE connects young climate scientists with real-world problems such as those faced by water resource managers.
Co-authors of the new paper include James Scott and Joseph Barsugli of CIRES and NOAA, Michael Alexander of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and Gregory Thompson of NCAR.
Boulder High winds and Fire Danger today. Small fire on Lee Hill #boulderfire
Nov 12th
The fire in Fourmile is in the 3000 block of Fourmile. The fire was last estimated to be approximately 200 feet wide. Latest reports indicate figrefighters have contained the fire. Lee Hill and Old Stage are re open and evacs cancelled. Deertrail remains closed.
163 reverse 911 calls went out. Fire department is monitoring both fires but danger has been lifter. Lee Hill fire appears to be started by wind blowing branch on power lines. 1 structure, a garage was lost and and auto was burned.
Fire command center is at Lee Hill.
3000 block of Fourmile fire ( carterfire was started by down power lines according to OEM spokesperson.
OEM reports:
11/12 12:05 p.m. – Boulder Wildfires
There are two fires in Boulder County. There is currently no threat to the City of Boulder.
First responders are on scene at both sites. The Emergency Operations Center is open and monitoring the situation, providing support as needed.
The fire at Lee Hill and Deer Trail is approximately 1-2 acres in size. An evacuation order has been issued for all residents in a one mile radius of the intersection of Deer Trail and Lee Hill. Roughly 50 firefighters are on scene right now.
The fire in Fourmile is in the 3000 block of Fourmile. The fire was last estimated to be approximately 200 feet wide. Latest reports indicate figrefighters have contained the fire. Lee Hill and Old Stage are re open and evacs cancelled. Deertrail remains closed.
Carter fire second fire: 5 engines 18 firefighters on scene up hill approximately 400 feet and second fire has broken out next to it. near 3000 block Four Mile according to Boulder county dispatch. 30% containment
High Wind Warning today.
A 1/2 acre fire has broken out at Deer Trail and Lee Hill Road. Many agencies are on scene. Wild land fire department are putting out hot spots according to Boulder county dispatch. Staff at OEM is starting to show up according to Mike Chard
Twitter reports road closures at Old Stage and Lee Hill but Boulder County dispatch says no. 163 reverse 911 calls 50 firefighters
In the City:
A few transformers blew today and are being repaired by Xcel
City of Boulder is working a garage fire at 9th and Marine according to city of boulder dispatch
High Wind warnings
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
404 AM MST SAT NOV 12 2011
…HIGH WINDS TO IMPACT THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS TODAY…
.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS COLORADO ON SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM THIS MORNING…AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
DAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG CROSS WINDS
CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. DRIVERS OF LIGHT WEIGHT OR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD CONSIDER DELAYING TRAVEL OR USE
ALTERNATE ROUTES. IF YOU ARE DRIVING ON THE ROADWAYS SLOW DOWN
AND REMAIN ALERT FOR SUDDEN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
COZ035-036-038-039-121900-
/O.CON.KBOU.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-111113T0100Z/
LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ESTES PARK…GLENDEVEY…NEDERLAND…
RED FEATHER LAKES…BAILEY…CENTRAL CITY…EVERGREEN…
GEORGETOWN…IDAHO SPRINGS…WESTCREEK…FORT COLLINS…
HEREFORD…LOVELAND…NUNN…ARVADA…BOULDER…GOLDEN…
LAKEWOOD…LONGMONT
404 AM MST SAT NOV 12 2011
…HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING…
A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING.
* TIMING…WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAY.
* WINDS…WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 75 MPH POSSIBLE.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH TO SOUTH HIGHWAYS AND ROADS WILL
BE VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO STRONG AND GUSTY CROSS WINDS. AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS INCLUDE…HIGHWAY 93 BETWEEN GOLDEN
AND BOULDER…HIGHWAY C-470 ALONG THE FOOTHILLS IN JEFFERSON
COUNTY…U.S. HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN BROOMFIELD AND ESTES PARK…
THE PEAK TO PEAK HIGHWAY FROM ESTES PARK THROUGH BLACKHAWK…
U.S. HIGHWAY 287 FROM LAFAYETTE TO THE WYOMING BORDER…AS
WELL AS THE CARTER LAKE AND HORSETOOTH RESERVOIR AREAS IN
LARIMER COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EITHER OCCURRING OR HIGHLY LIKELY.
Boulder County gets ready for global warming
Jan 19th
Posted by Channel 1 Networks in Environmental News
No comments
Public invited to comment on Climate Change Preparedness Plan
Draft to be discussed at meetings in Boulder and Longmont
Boulder County, Colo. – Boulder County is developing a Climate Change Preparedness Plan to help local residents and communities better prepare for changing environmental conditions.
A team of local consultants reviewed science pertinent to the Front Range and developed a list of recommendations for the community. The strategies outlined in the draft plan will be available for public review at two January meetings and for comment online until Feb. 24.
Anyone who lives or works in Boulder County is invited to provide feedback on the draft plan by mail, online, or at one of two public meetings:
Boulder
When: Tuesday, Jan. 24, 6-7:30 p.m.
Where: Boulder County Courthouse, third floor hearing room, 1325 Pearl St.
Longmont
When: Thursday, Jan. 26, 6-7:30 p.m.
Where: Boulder County Parks and Open Space, 5201 St. Vrain Road
A draft of the plan and a survey link are available on the plan’s webpage. Or visit www.BoulderCounty.org, click on the “Sustain” button and scroll to “Energy and Climate.”
For additional information, contact Sustainability Planner Lisa Friend at lfriend@bouldercounty.org or 303-441-3522.
Comments will also be accepted at P.O. Box 471, Boulder, CO 80306, Attn: BOCC Climate Change Preparedness Plan.
For assistance with accessibility, contact the Human Resources Division at 303-441-3508 at least 48 hours before either scheduled event.