Posts tagged Colorado Business Economic Outlook
CU Leeds School of Business: Positive, broad-based job growth forecast for Colorado in 2013
Dec 3rd
Colorado will continue on the road to recovery and add a variety of jobs in 2013 across almost all business sectors following a positive year in 2012, according to economist Richard Wobbekind of the University of Colorado Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.
Wobbekind’s announcement is part of the 48th annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum presented Dec. 3 by the Business Research Division of the Leeds School.
The comprehensive outlook for 2013 features forecasts and trends for 13 business sectors prepared by more than 100 key business, government and industry professionals.
“For the state, we see a very positive environment for 2013,” said Wobbekind, executive director of the Business Research Division. “We’re seeing a wide array of jobs being added and they’re diversifying our state economy.”
Overall, the forecast calls for a gain of 42,100 jobs in 2013, compared with a gain of about 47,900 jobs this year. All sectors of the Colorado economy are predicted to grow in 2013 with the exception of the information sector, which includes publishing and telecommunications.
When comparing the Leeds School forecast to employment outlooks for other states, Colorado is expected to be in the top 10 states for job growth in 2013 and perhaps in the top six or seven, according to Wobbekind.
Even with positive job growth projected for the state, Wobbekind said uncertainty from national and international factors will play a role in slowing growth during the first and second quarters of 2013. More momentum will occur in the second half of the year.
“Resolution of the so-called fiscal cliff and the resolution of the European debt crisis will have impacts on the national economy and that will filter down to the state level,” said Wobbekind. “Once that uncertainty gets resolved, we then expect business investments to start flowing again and consumers to start making decisions based on a known environment. We think the recovery will be quite a bit smoother after that.”
The strongest sector for projected job growth in Colorado in 2013 is the educational and health services sector. The sector is expected to add 7,600 jobs in 2013.
In addition, other leading growth sectors for 2013 include the professional and business services sector with 7,400 jobs added and leisure and hospitality with 5,000 workers added, mostly in the areas of accommodation and food services.
The trade, transportation and utilities sector is the largest provider of jobs in Colorado. It includes everything from wholesale and retail trade to a variety of transportation features such as the Denver International Airport and gas pipelines, as well as utilities. The sector is expected to grow 1.4 percent in 2013 with the addition of 5,600 jobs.
The construction sector is expected to grow by 6,300 jobs in 2013 — up from a 2,800-job increase this year — and produce $12.6 billion in total value of construction. While the biggest surprise in the sector is the demand for infrastructure work, the number of new multifamily units built is a contributing factor to the increase, among others.
Commenting on the overall forecast, Wobbekind said, “It’s great to be giving positive news to people year after year. Confidence levels nationally are at their highest levels in five years. We’re really starting to see a lot more optimism on the part of the average person on the street about the future.”
Colorado’s unemployment rate is expected to decrease from 8 percent in 2012 to 7.4 percent in 2013, which is comparatively better than the national unemployment rate.
Colorado’s population grew by 1.4 percent, or 71,000 people, in 2012 and is projected to increase by 1.5 percent, or 77,500 people, in 2013. Roughly half of the increase will derive from net migration, or the increase of people moving to the state.
To view the entire economic outlook for Colorado in 2013, including an overview of each of the state’s major economic sectors, visit http://leeds.colorado.edu/BRD and click on the Colorado Business Economic Outlook 2013 icon.
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CU Boulder study: Economy is making steady improvement
Dec 5th
SLOW, STEADY JOB GROWTH FORECAST FOR COLORADO
IN 2012, SAYS CU LEEDS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
IN 2012, SAYS CU LEEDS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
Colorado will continue on the road to recovery and add jobs in 2012 following a positive year in 2011, according to economist Richard Wobbekind of the University of Colorado Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.
Wobbekind’s announcement was part of the 47th annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum presented Dec. 5 by CU-Boulder’s Leeds School of Business.
Compiled by the Leeds School’s Business Research Division, the comprehensive outlook for 2012 features forecasts and trends for 13 business sectors prepared by approximately 100 key business, government and industry professionals.
“In 2012 we’re predicting slow but steady growth for Colorado, much like the U.S. economy,” said Wobbekind, executive director of the Business Research Division. “We’ll continue to add jobs in a wide array of sectors, but not at the dramatic rate that is necessary to significantly lower the unemployment rate.”
Overall, the forecast calls for a gain of 23,000 jobs in 2012, compared with a gain of 27,500 jobs this year. Most sectors of the Colorado economy are predicted to grow in 2012, including the addition of 2,900 jobs in construction, marking the first positive job growth in that troubled sector in four years.
When comparing the Leeds’ forecast to forecasts for other states, Colorado is expected to be in the top 10 states for job growth in 2012.
“The broader story here is Colorado entered the recession later, came out of the recession later and now appears to be accelerating past the rest of the country in terms of job growth and recovery,” Wobbekind said.
Even with positive job growth predicted for the state, Wobbekind said uncertainty at numerous levels still clouds the economic picture in the state and nation.
“The theme of almost every national forecast is uncertainty,” he said. “Every day there is a new event in Europe or a new event in Washington. So you continue to have all of these elements of uncertainty and they impact consumer confidence and household spending. That is something that is very hard to forecast or predict.”
The strongest sector for projected job growth in Colorado in 2012 is the educational and health services sector. The sector is expected to add 7,500 jobs in 2012.
In addition, other leading growth sectors for 2012 include the professional and business services sector with 6,800 jobs added and leisure and hospitality with 3,800 added..
On the agriculture side, Colorado farmers and ranchers are coming off what is expected to be a record-setting year for net farm income. Colorado’s agricultural producers benefited from unexpectedly strong market prices for livestock and crops in 2011, leading to an estimated record net farm income in the state of $1.7 billion. Historic drought in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas spared much of Colorado in 2011, leading to increased market prices for Colorado agricultural products.
“Mother Nature played a major part in this, and this year it played in our favor,” Wobbekind said, adding that Colorado agriculturalists also are expected to do well in 2012.
The manufacturing sector, after adding jobs in 2011 for the first time since 2003, will return to a long-term downward trend and is forecast to lose 1,900 jobs. Two other sectors expected to lose jobs are information, forecast to shed 500 jobs, and financial activities, losing 1,000 jobs.
In 2011, Colorado consumers spent more on goods and services, with retail sales increasing 6.5 percent for the year. In 2012, retail sales are forecast to remain relatively strong with a gain of 4 percent.
“We view the consumer as coming back to the table,” Wobbekind said. “Consumers have deferred a lot, including what we would call more necessary expenditures such as automobiles and other essential products that have been wearing out and need to be replaced.”
With 2011 coming to a close, Wobbekind said Colorado’s economy is ending the year on a positive note.
“We went into the year a little bit slow and then built up momentum for pretty much the entire year, and the last couple of months we’ve passed the national growth rate for jobs, and we’ll end the year above the national growth rate for jobs,” he said. “2011 was a decent year in which we added jobs in a fairly wide variety of sectors.”
Colorado’s unemployment rate for 2012 is expected to decrease from 8.7 percent at the end of 2011 to 8.4 percent, compared with a projected national unemployment rate of around 9 percent.
Colorado’s population is projected to grow 1.5 percent, or 75,900 people, in 2012.
To view the entire economic outlook for Colorado in 2012, including an overview of each of the state’s major economic sectors, visit http://leeds.colorado.edu/BRD and click on the Colorado Business Economic Outlook 2012 icon
