Posts tagged economy
Boulder city budget on the uptick
Aug 30th
On Sept. 11, Boulder City Council will begin considering a proposed 2013 budget that supports master plans accepted by council in 2012, restores partial funding for police and firefighter training, and continues funding for existing community programs and services.
City officials said that while the local economy is improving slowly, the city’s General Fund revenues will see only modest increases in 2013. As a result, City Manager Jane Brautigam recommends continuing the conservative approach initiated during the economic downturn; limited new funding will be allocated to programs supporting the highest community priorities next year, including economic vitality initiatives and significant investments in Boulder’s public facilities and infrastructure made possible by voters in November 2011.
The $256 million Recommended Budget includes $33 million in capital improvement plan spending – an increase of $10 million over 2012 levels.
“Boulder is in a stable financial position, and the conservative approach taken over the past few years has helped the city to become more efficient and effective with public dollars,” said Brautigam. “Our focus on cost recovery, restructuring city functions and not using one-time revenues to pay for on-going expenses has enabled Boulder to reduce the projected $135 million annual structural gap identified by the Blue Ribbon Commission in 2008 to $75 million annually by 2030.
“Boulder’s guiding principles of separating one-time revenues from ongoing expenditures also emphasizes the need to accurately project future one-time costs in order to carefully save over several years in preparation for those expenditures to avoid impacting Boulder’s base budget,” added Brautigam. “Because the city purposely saved for the future, we are prepared to pay as we go for planned one-time expenditures without negative impacts to the 2013 base budget.”
The recommended base budget reflects a 2 percent increase in base budget expenditures compared to the 2012 approved budget. Boulder saved an additional $16 million outside of that base budget to pay for one-time expenses that will be incurred next year. Most of that amount consists of funding for important transportation projects leveraged by the city using state and federal sources; a once every 11- to 12-year pay-period liability associated with Boulder’s biweekly pay system, and expenditures for Boulder’s Energy Future that are now included in the city’s budget document to reflect revenues approved by the voters in November 2011.
In addition to the continued long-term emphasis to stabilize revenues and expenditures, the Recommended Budget addresses community and council priorities with a major emphasis in the following areas:
- Restore non-personnel funding for police and firefighter training that was reduced during the economic downturn;
- Provide additional resources for Boulder’s Energy Future, the Civic Area Master Plan and adding a resource officer for homelessness initiatives;
- Carry out steps needed to implement master plans and department assessments, some of which began in the 2012 budget;
- Continue and strengthen the commitment to economic sustainability; and
- Boost the capacity of the city to renew its infrastructure and invest in technology.
The Recommended Budget provides for targeted growth in priority programs, adding one standard full-time equivalent (FTE) employee and 5.5 fixed-term FTEs in the General Fund to address these community initiatives.
Council is scheduled to begin studying the city manager’s 2013 recommended budget at its Tuesday, Sept. 11, study session. The study session will be aired live on Channel 8.
City Manager’s 2013 Recommended Budget is available online.
CU study: Romney to win presidency
Aug 22nd
Analysis of election factors points to
Romney win, University of Colorado study says
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
Accordingly — and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time — each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors.
In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.
In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama’s 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.
The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September. A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall an unexpected direction.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said.
Election prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” Bickers said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”
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Population growth unsustainable, says CU prof, and the end will not be pretty
Jul 31st
In an educational video entitled “Population, Consumption, and Climate: A Conversation with Al Bartlett,” the professor reprises themes from his notorious talk on population. Bartlett came to CU-Boulder in 1950 to join the Department of Physics. In the 1950s and today, he notes society and governments view steady growth as the centerpiece of the global economy.
“I got to thinking about the fact that people didn’t really understand the arithmetic of steady growth,” he said. “So I put together a talk. I first gave it in September of 1969 on the arithmetic of growth.”
Bartlett has since delivered that well-known lecture more than 1,700 times to audiences worldwide. He often cites an analogy of human population growth and multiplying bacteria. Using an animation that shows bacteria doubling over a fixed period of time, the video illustrates the arithmetic of steady growth and how quickly resources are depleted as growth continues.
“There will be limits,” cautions Bartlett.
The world population topped 7 billion in March 2012, according to the United States Census Bureau. Bartlett explains that despite the fact that population growth rates in developing countries may be 3-4 times higher than the U.S. rates, a significant problem with population resides in the United States because of high per capita demand for energy and resources.
“The average child born in the United States will have, over its lifetime, 10-20 times the impact on world resources as a child born in an underdeveloped nation,” he says. “So we’ve got to address the problem at home.”
In addition to the strain on the earth’s natural resources, excessive consumption contributes to climate change because resource extraction, manufacturing, and transportation produce a great deal of carbon dioxide. And, according to Bartlett, “if any fraction of global warming can be attributed to the actions of humans, that’s all the proof you need to say the human population today is greater than the carrying capacity of the earth.”
Population, Consumption, and Climate: A Conversation with Al Bartlett is part of a video series viewable at Learn More About Climate, produced by CU-Boulder’s Office for University Outreach and Landlocked Films.
The Learn More About Climate initiative brings climate change-related information to communities across the state.The website is an online outreach tool that localizes climate change through interviews with leading scientists and everyday Coloradans to explain how climate change is affecting our state. The site also offers resources for teachers, students, policy makers, and community members who want to learn more about this critical issue.