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With November inching closer, the 2012 election race is beginning to reach its boiling point.

Mark Silva, deputy managing editor for government news at Bloomberg News in Washington, believes the race may come down to the wire with states such as Florida being the decision makers.

“Florida’s long-fought 2000 election is what decided that election,” said Silva, who will kick off Flagler College’s 2012 Forums on Government and Public Policy lecture series at 7 p.m. on Sept. 11 in the Lewis Auditorium at Flagler College. “Florida again will be among a handful of states that determine the outcome this year.”

The topic of Silva’s talk will be “Election 2012: Too Close to Call?”

At Bloomberg since 2010, Silva oversees a team of reporters and editors covering the White House, Congress and the 2012 election campaign, as well as other agencies such as State, Defense, Justice and the Supreme Court.

According to Silva, the upcoming election will be close despite playing out against the backdrop of a struggling economy and more than three years of unemployment running at over 8 percent.

“Presidents have not typically been reelected in modern times with that much unemployment,” said Silva. “Yet President Barack Obama enjoys a high degree of personal popularity — the public’s favorable view of him exceeding the job approval ratings he gets. At the same time, Romney is a disciplined and also well-financed candidate backed by super-PACs whose fundraising and TV ads have enabled the Republicans to go toe-to-toe with Obama on the air.”

And while Silva believes that economic factors and demographics across the country will play a part in who wins the 2012 election, it will be the voters in swing states such as Florida that will make the difference.

“Florida is a true swing state,” said Silva. “They voted for Obama in 2008, George W. Bush twice, Bill Clinton for reelection in 1996 but not election in 1992, George H.W. Bush twice, Ronald Reagan twice, Jimmy Carter once, but not for reelection.”

Silva says voters should also keep an eye on North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio.

“The economy is better in Ohio than it is nationally, and even in Florida, which has suffered among the worst in the collapse of the housing market, the economy has shown signs of improvement,” said Silva. “Ultimately, the way voters feel about their own economy in these swing states, and what they’ve decided about all this negative TV advertising, will determine who wins the White House.”

Lewis Auditorium at Flagler College is at 14 Granada St. in St Augustine. Forums are free and open to the public, but seating is on a first-come, first-served basis. Sign language interpreters are provided. Call (904) 819-6400 for more information or visit the Forum on Government & Public Policy events website.

Source: Flagler College

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