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CU study: Romney to win presidency
Aug 22nd
Analysis of election factors points to
Romney win, University of Colorado study says
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
Accordingly — and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time — each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors.
In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.
In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama’s 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.
The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September. A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall an unexpected direction.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said.
Election prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” Bickers said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”
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City of Boulder closures for USA Pro Cycling race begin Friday
Aug 21st
On Saturday, Aug. 25, Boulder will host stage six of the USA Pro Cycling Challenge, Colorado’s largest professional bike race. More than 100,000 spectators are expected to visit the city. As a result, Boulder officials are asking residents to be aware of when and where road and facility closures will occur during the event. Please plan ahead and allow for extra time when traveling through Boulder.
The following city facilities, trail areas and roads will be closed for the event:
Friday Aug. 24
Open Space Flagstaff area:
Beginning at 5 a.m. Friday, Aug. 24, there will be no parking along Flagstaff Road from 6th Street to the 5-mile marker (Bison Drive) to allow for the set-up of race-related infrastructure.
After 5 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 24, there will be no public access to the Open Space and Mountain Parks properties in the Flagstaff area. This closure includes all property and trails west of 6th Street, north of Gregory Canyon (including the Gregory Canyon trail) and south of Boulder Canyon and east of Chapman Drive.
Starting at 5 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 24, the only vehicles allowed on Flagstaff Road will be for local residents and race related traffic, from 6th Street to Bison Drive.
Street closures:
Pearl Street from 15th Street to 20th Street will be closed on Friday, Aug. 24, starting at noon.
Both 15th Street and 20th Street will remain open on Friday, but 16th Street, 17th Street, 18th Street and 19th Street will be closed one-half block north and south of Pearl Street. The mall loop will remain open on Friday and access to and from the parking garage at 15th Street and Pearl Street will remain open.
Baseline Road will be closed at 6th Street, preventing vehicular access to Flagstaff. This closure will start at 5 p.m. on Friday evening.
Saturday Aug. 25
Open Space Flagstaff area:
After 7 a.m. on Saturday, Aug. 25, the public may begin accessing the Flagstaff area on foot using the Viewpoint Trail and by foot or bike using Flagstaff Road. Dogs are prohibited. No bikes will be allowed north of Realization Point on Summit Road. Bike corrals will be available at multiple points on Flagstaff Road.
Tents, canopies or structures will not be allowed on Flagstaff Mountain. Folding chairs and personally held umbrellas are permissible.
After the race, spectators will be allowed to use designated portions of the Flagstaff Trail for egress along with the Viewpoint Trail and Flagstaff Road.
Main Boulder Public Library:
The Main Boulder Public Library, 1001 Arapahoe Ave., will be closed Saturday, Aug. 25. Branch libraries (Meadows, George Reynolds and Carnegie) will be open regular Saturday hours. Information: www.boulderlibrary.org.
Chautauqua Park
Chautauqua Park, 900 Baseline Road, will be open; however no public parking will be available anywhere within the Chautauqua area. The Chautauqua Dining Hall will be open.
Street closures:
- On Saturday morning, starting at 6 a.m., the closure of Pearl Street will be extended and Pearl Street will be closed from 15th Street to Folsom Avenue. The closure will affect all cross streets intersecting Pearl Street from 15th Street to Folsom Avenue.
- 17th Street will be completely closed for the entire day from Canyon Boulevard to Spruce Avenue. Vehicles traveling east and west on Walnut Street will be able to cross the intersection of 17th and Walnut streets. All other intersections will be closed.
- Starting at 6 a.m., Spruce Street, from Broadway to 17th Street, will be completely closed for the entire day. Southbound vehicles will be able to cross Spruce Street at 14th Street. Local traffic will be able to cross Spruce Street at 16th Street. All other intersections will be closed.
- Starting at 6 a.m., westbound Baseline Road (toward Flagstaff) from Broadway to the west city limits will be closed, except for local traffic at the Broadway and Baseline Road intersection.
- Starting at 10 a.m., 20th Street between Baseline Road and Cascade Avenue will be closed and will remain closed for the entire day.
In addition to these full-time street closures, there will be periodic closures of numerous roadways along the USA Pro Cycling race route. These closures will typically take between 15 and 45 minutes, as the caravan of race riders, support vehicles and police escorts traverse the course. Estimated times for periodic road closures are available on the Boulder Stage Interactive Map (www.usaproboulder.com/map). A video tour of the interactive map can be seen athttps://vimeo.com/47741383.
To view the most up-to-date event parking and transportation options based on your specific needs, visit the Boulder Stage Interactive Map. The State of Colorado also is announcing information about road closures throughout the region. Regional information is available at www.cotrip.org.
The Regional Transportation District (RTD) will increase bus service to Boulder to provide more transit options for race spectators, and the HOP will provide free bus service within Boulder on Aug. 25. Service will be doubled for RTD’s BV route and on the BOLT to Longmont. RTD route information is available at: www.rtd-denver.com.
For more information on the Boulder stage of the race, visit www.usaproboulder.com.
Boulder police release photos of bank robbery suspect
Aug 21st
Boulder police are trying to identify a white male in his mid-to-late forties who investigators believe robbed the First National Bank at 3033 Iris in Boulder. The robbery occurred at 12:07 p.m.
Witnesses inside the bank say that the suspect was in the lobby and then stepped up to the teller station, where he passed a note. The suspect did not say anything, but based on the note, the teller gave him an undisclosed amount of cash. He then left the bank out the north door and was last seen outside the bank.
The suspect did not display a weapon during the robbery, and no one was hurt.
The suspect is described as:
- White male
- Mid-to-late 40’s
- 5’4” tall, medium build
- Brown hair
- Razor stubble
- Large-framed sunglasses
- Wearing a “well worn” CU Buffaloes baseball cap, a dark green hoodie with a front zipper, and a yellow shirt with a graphic of a basketball going into a hoop, dark pants & white tennis shoes
- Carrying a cream or ivory-colored cloth shopping bag with unidentifiable writing on the side
The FBI has been notified and is working in partnership with the Boulder Police Department. The case number is 12-11273.
Anyone who has information about this robbery or the suspect is asked to call Detective Tom Dowd at 303-441-3385. Those who have information but wish to remain anonymous may contact the Northern Colorado Crime Stoppers at 1-800-222-TIPS (8477) or 1-800-444-3776. Tips can also be submitted through the Crime Stoppers website at www.crimeshurt.com. Those submitting tips through Crime Stoppers that lead to the arrest and filing of charges on a suspect(s) may be eligible for a cash reward of up to $1,000 from Crime Stoppers.