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THAWING PERMAFROST LIKELY WILL ACCELERATE GLOBAL WARMING IN COMING DECADES, SAYS STUDY
Feb 16th
The carbon resides in permanently frozen ground that is beginning to thaw in high latitudes from warming temperatures, which will impact not only the climate but also international strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions, said CU-Boulder’s Kevin Schaefer, lead study author. “If we want to hit a target carbon dioxide concentration, then we have to reduce fossil fuel emissions that much lower than previously thought to account for this additional carbon from the permafrost,” he said. “Otherwise we will end up with a warmer Earth than we want.”
The escaping carbon comes from plant material, primarily roots trapped and frozen in soil during the last glacial period that ended roughly 12,000 years ago, he said. Schaefer, a research associate at CU-Boulder’s National Snow and Ice Data Center, an arm of CIRES, likened the mechanism to storing broccoli in a home freezer. “As long as it stays frozen, it stays stable for many years,” he said. “But if you take it out of the freezer it will thaw out and decay.”
While other studies have shown carbon has begun to leak out of permafrost in Alaska and Siberia, the study by Schaefer and his colleagues is the first to make actual estimates of future carbon release from permafrost. “This gives us a starting point, and something more solid to work from in future studies,” he said. “We now have some estimated numbers and dates to work with.”
The new study was published online Feb. 14 in the scientific journal Tellus. Co-authors include CIRES Fellow and Senior Research Scientist Tingjun Zhang from NSIDC, Lori Bruhwiler of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Andrew Barrett from NSIDC. Funding for the project came from NASA, NOAA and the National Science Foundation.
Schaefer and his team ran multiple Arctic simulations assuming different rates of temperature increases to forecast how much carbon may be released globally from permafrost in the next two centuries. They estimate a release of roughly 190 billion tons of carbon, most of it in the next 100 years. The team used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios and land-surface models for the study.
“The amount we expect to be released by permafrost is equivalent to half of the amount of carbon released since the dawn of the Industrial Age,” said Schaefer. The amount of carbon predicted for release between now and 2200 is about one-fifth of the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere today, according to the study.
While there were about 280 parts per million of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere prior to the Industrial Age beginning about 1820, there are more than 380 parts per million of carbon now in the atmosphere and the figure is rising. The increase, equivalent to about 435 billion tons of carbon, resulted primarily from human activities like the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
Using data from all climate simulations, the team estimated that about 30 to 60 percent of Earth’s permafrost will disappear by 2200. The study took into account all of the permanently frozen ground at high latitudes around the globe.
The consensus of the vast majority of climate scientists is that the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere is the primary reason for increasingly warm temperatures on Earth. According to NOAA, 2010 was tied for the hottest year on record. The hottest decade on record occurred from 2000 to 2010.
Greater reductions in fossil fuel emissions to account for carbon released by the permafrost will be a daunting global challenge, Schaefer said. “The problem is getting more and more difficult all the time,” he said. “It is hard enough to reduce the emissions in any case, but now we have to reduce emissions even more. We think it is important to get that message out now.”
CIRES is a joint institute of CU-Boulder and NOAA.
To view a short video of Schaefer talking about thawing permafrost visit http://www.colorado.edu/news and click on the story headline.
-CU media release
City of Boulder News Briefs Feb. 16 2011
Feb 15th
Beginning early Wednesday, Feb. 16 from 12 a.m. to 9 a.m. the intersection of Pearl and Folsom streets will be impacted while city crews repair a leaking water valve. The work will take place on Pearl Street, just west of Folsom Street, and will reduce the inside eastbound roadway and bike lanes.
Traffic will be detoured around the work zone. Alternate travel routes are advised.
This work is weather-dependent; inclement weather may cause delays or changes to the schedule.
For more information, please call the Utilities Division at 303-413-7134.
City Funding Available for Youth Programs
The City of Boulder Youth Opportunities Program announces grant funds to support cultural, recreational or educational opportunities for City of Boulder resident middle or high school age youth. Annual Grant proposals of up to $15,000 are due March 1, 2011 for programs beginning in September 2011. Group Activities proposals of up to $3,000 to serve groups of ten or more youth this spring/summer are due the 15th of each month through April, 2011. Funds are also available to provide materials needed for local youth volunteer projects. The Youth Opportunities Program is part of the City of Boulder Department of Housing and Human Services. More information and application materials can be found at www.yoab.org or by calling Alice Swett at 303-441-4349.
Today's News from City of Boulder
Feb 14th
The City of Boulder posted an online survey last week to gather input on its website at . The survey will be open through March 4, 2011.
The survey is intended to get input from users on what services and information they like, and what else they’d like to see as well as to gauge how users are finding information on the site. The survey results will be used, along with other information, to make improvements to the city’s website content, organization and navigation.
Scott Carpenter pool improvements begin today
The Parks and Recreation Department began work today, Monday, Feb. 14, to make repairs to the Scott Carpenter Park outdoor pool located at 1505 30th St. Pool repairs and improvements include installation of stainless steel gutters and a surge tank; energy efficient boiler; deck drains; lifeguard stands and a re-finish of the water slide.
Work on the pool is estimated to take approximately 10 weeks (depending upon weather and contractor scheduling) and should not impact the pool’s planned May 28, 2011 opening. According to Steve Whipple, facilities administrator for Parks and Recreation, this work is necessary to enhance the swimming experience, improve water and energy conservation, and improve pool performance and safety. The work is estimated to cost $400,000. The last significant maintenance project at the pool was in 2007, when it was sandblasted and painted. Scott Carpenter Pool is the only 50 meter pool operated by the city.
For more information, call Shelly Ruspakka, Parks and Recreation, at 303-413-7214.