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CU Boulder study: Alaska’s iconic Columbia Glacier expected to stop retreating in 2020
Nov 26th
The wild and dramatic cascade of ice into the ocean from Alaska’s Columbia Glacier, an iconic glacier featured in the documentary “Chasing Ice” and one of the fastest moving glaciers in the world, will cease around 2020, according to a study by the University of Colorado Boulder.
A computer model predicts the retreat of the Columbia Glacier will stop when the glacier reaches a new stable position — roughly 15 miles upstream from the stable position it occupied prior to the 1980s. The team, headed by lead author William Colgan of the CU-Boulder headquartered Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, published its results today in The Cryosphere, an open access publication of the European Geophysical Union.
The Columbia Glacier is a large (425 square miles), multi-branched glacier in south-central Alaska that flows mostly south out of the Chugach Mountains to its tidewater terminus in Prince William Sound.

1938
Warming air temperatures have triggered an increase in the Columbia Glacier’s rate of iceberg calving, whereby large pieces of ice detach from the glacier and float into the ocean, according to Colgan. “Presently, the Columbia Glacier is calving about 2 cubic miles of icebergs into the ocean each year — that is over five times more freshwater than the entire state of Alaska uses annually,” he said. “It is astounding to watch.”
The imminent finish of the retreat, or recession of the front of the glacier, has surprised scientists and highlights the difficulties of trying to estimate future rates of sea level rise, Colgan said. “Many people are comfortable thinking of the glacier contribution to sea level rise as this nice predictable curve into the future, where every year there is a little more sea level rise, and we can model it out for 100 or 200 years,” Colgan said.
The team’s findings demonstrate otherwise, however. A single glacier’s contribution to sea level rise can “turn on” and “turn off” quite rapidly, over a couple of years, with the precise timing of the life cycle being difficult to forecast, he said. Presently, the majority of sea level rise comes from the global population of glaciers. Many of these glaciers are just starting to retreat, and some will soon cease to retreat.

2004
“The variable nature and speed of the life cycle among glaciers highlights difficulties in trying to accurately predict the amount of sea level rise that will occur in the decades to come,” Colgan said.
The Columbia Glacier was first documented in 1794 when it appeared to be stable with a length of 41 miles. During the 1980s it began a rapid retreat and by 1995 it was only about 36 miles long. By late 2000 it was about 34 miles long.
The loss of a massive area of the Columbia Glacier’s tongue has generated a tremendous number of icebergs since the 1980s. After the Exxon Valdez ran aground while avoiding a Columbia Glacier iceberg in 1989, significant resources were invested to understand its iceberg production. As a result, Columbia Glacier became one of the most well-documented tidewater glaciers in the world, providing a bank of observational data for scientists trying to understand how a tidewater glacier reacts to a warming climate.
Motivated by the compelling imagery of the Columbia Glacier’s retreat documented in the Extreme Ice Survey — James Balog’s collection of time-lapse photography of disappearing glaciers around the world — Colgan became curious as to how long the glacier would continue to retreat. To answer this question, the team of researchers created a flexible model of the Columbia Glacier to reproduce different criteria such as ice thickness and terminus extent.
The scientists then compared thousands of outputs from the computer model under different assumptions with the wealth of data that exists for the Columbia Glacier.
The batch of outputs that most accurately reproduced the well-documented history of retreat was run into the future to predict the changes the Columbia Glacier will most likely experience until the year 2100. The researchers found that around 2020 the terminus of the glacier will retreat into water that is sufficiently shallow to provide a stable position through 2100 by slowing the rate of iceberg production.
The speediness of the glacier’s retreat is due to the unique nature of tidewater glaciers, Colgan said. When warming temperatures melt the surface of a land glacier, the land glacier only loses its mass by run-off. But in tidewater glaciers, the changes in ice thickness resulting from surface melt can create striking changes in ice flow, triggering an additional dynamic process for retreat.
The dynamic response of the Columbia Glacier to the surface melt will continue until the glacier reaches its new stable position in 2020, at roughly 26 miles long. “Once the dynamic trigger had been pulled, it probably wouldn’t have mattered too much what happened to the surface melt — it was just going to continue retreating through the bedrock depression upstream of the pre-1980s terminus,” Colgan said.
Colgan next plans to attempt to use similar models to predict when the Greenland glaciers — currently the major contributors to sea level rise — will “turn off” and complete their retreats.
The future for the Columbia Glacier, however, looks bleak. “I think the hope was that once we saw climate change happening, we could act to prevent some irreversible consequences,” Colgan said, “but now we are only about eight years out from this retreat finishing — it is really sad. There is virtually no chance of the Columbia Glacier recovering its pre-retreat dimensions on human time-scales.”
The study was funded by NASA, and co-authors on the paper include W. Tad Pfeffer of CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Harihar Rajaram of the CU-Boulder Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, Waleed Abdalati of the National Aeronautic and Space Administration in Washington, D.C., and Balog of the Extreme Ice Survey in Boulder, Colo.
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Buffs Ice Down Falcons, Remain Unbeaten
Nov 26th
BOULDER – Here’s the way Tad Boyle sees a night against an opponent as hot as Air Force was in Sunday’s first half: “If they’re going to make jump shots, shoot threes, over our hands for 40 minutes, then after the game we’ll shake hands and congratulate them.”
At game’s end at the Coors Events Center, Boyle’s Colorado Buffaloes did indeed wind up shaking hands with the Falcons at mid-court – but it wasn’t because the visitors’ long-range marksmanship continued.
Air Force cooled off and CU rolled on. Impressively. The No. 23 Buffs remained unbeaten by zooming past the previously unbeaten Falcons 89-74 for their first 5-0 start since the 1989-90 season.

Roberson returns to form with a double-double
“I think people understand now about Air Force and why we were nervous after the first half,” Boyle said. “They’re well-disciplined, well-coached . . . we did a great job of taking away their layups, but it’s pick your poison against Air Force.”
AFA (5-1) shot 57.1 percent (8-of-14) from beyond the arc in the first half, but still trailed 41-39. In the second half, with the Buffs putting more defensive emphasis on getting around/through flair screens and ball screens – and believing the visiting shooters couldn’t stay that torrid – the Falcons cooled to a more earthly 25 percent (4-of-16) from three-point range.
The Falcons finished the game at 40.6 percent (13-of-32) from long range, with the Buffs at 7-of-13 (53.8 percent) for the night. But CU had more of everything: the Buffs made the board battle a joke, winning it 46-19; they dominated in the paint, 40-18; they had 18 second-chance points to the Falcons’ four; and they sank 22-of-28 free throws. That last stat came after players shot 100 free throws each for a couple of practices preceding the Falcons’ trip north.

CU freshman Josh Scott got 20 points
Freshman post Josh Scott posted his first 20-point night at CU, junior forward Andre Roberson got back in his double-double groove (18 points, 13 rebounds) and the sophomore backcourt of Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker contributed 15 points each.
“This team, when we’re balanced, we have lot of different weapons,” Boyle said. Of the 6-10 Scott’s performance, he added, “He’s a great post player; he showed signs of why he was so highly regarded . . . his shot is not always the prettiest, but it goes in. Our guys believe in Josh.”
Scott said the Buffs’ standard plan is to work inside out “to me, Dre (Roberson) or ‘X’ (Xavier Johnson) . . . that’s always a constant thing.”
Just a guess, but CU Boyle’s message at halftime probably centered on making life a little more difficult for the Falcons’ marksmen.
They came to Boulder averaging 10.2 treys a game, and by intermission they were just about there, hitting eight of 14 (57 percent).
Still, CU led 41-39, matching AFA’s percentage from behind the arc but just not attempting or hitting as many (four of seven). Instead, the Buffs got their points in a variety of ways from a variety of players. Boyle used 10 players in the first 20 minutes, and nine of them scored.
Before the Falcons’ barrage of threes – they made six in the first half’s final 10 minutes – the Buffs had taken an eight-point lead (19-11) and appeared to have the visitors on their heels. Not so.
Air Force came soaring back behind Todd Fletcher, who scored nine consecutive points to bring his team to within three (23-20). Then, a DeLovell Earls three-pointer tied the score with 10:41 remaining before intermission. From there, CU managed to go up by as many as five (36-31), but AFA stayed hot from behind the arc in the final 4:30, hitting its last two treys to trail by only two at the break.
The second half’s most immediate questions: Would the Air Force cool off, or could CU make that happen? Yes and yes.
Said Scott: “I thought they were definitely going to get tired and were not going to make those shots in the second half. We were contesting them.”
Added Roberson: “They came out hot . . . but they wouldn’t be able to do it for all 40 minutes.”
Halfway through the final 20 minutes, the Falcons had added three more treys to their total – but they weren’t sizzling. And the Buffs had rolled to their largest advantage of the night (67-58) to that point. They used a 9-2 run highlighted by an Eli Stalzer trey against the AFA zone and a Roberson steal/stuff that juiced up the crowd of 10,607.
At the 7:47 mark, CU had gone ahead by 10 (71-61) on a pair of Dinwiddie free throws. Another pair from Scott and a nifty layup by Booker with 5:19 to play opened a 14-point CU advantage (75-61).
To catch up, the Falcons would have to go on another three-point binge, but it didn’t happen. The Buffs steadily pulled away.
CU plays Texas Southern Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. at the Coors Events Center.
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Boulder Valley School District makes AP honor roll
Nov 26th
[Boulder, CO] – Boulder Valley School District is one of 539 school districts across 44 of the 50 states in the U.S. and Canada being honored by the College Board with placement on the 3rd Annual AP® District Honor Roll for simultaneously increasing access to Advance Placement® course work while increasing the percentage of students earning scores of 3 or higher on AP Exams. Achieving both of these goals is the ideal scenario for a district’s AP program because it indicates that the district is successfully identifying motivated, academically prepared students who are likely to benefit most from rigorous AP course work. Since 2010, BVSD has increased the number of students participating in AP by 7 percent while improving the percentage of students earning AP Exam scores of 3 or higher by 1 percent.
“It’s an honor for our district to be recognized for the important work that our educators are doing and a testament to how hard many of our students are willing to work to achieve academic success,” said Dr. Bruce Messinger, BVSD Superintendent.
Helping more students learn at a higher level and earn higher AP scores is an objective of all members of the AP community. More than 90 percent of colleges and universities across the U.S. offer college credit, advanced placement or both for a score of 3 or above on an AP Exam – which can potentially save students and their families thousands of dollars in college tuition.
About the College Board
The College Board is a mission-driven-not-for-profit organization that connects students to college success and opportunity. Founded in 1900, the College Board was created to expand access to higher education. Today, the membership association is made up of over 6,000 of the world’s leading educational institutions and is dedicated to promoting excellence and equity in education. For further information, visit www.collegeboard.org.
BVSD Placed on College Board’s 3rd Annual AP®
District Honor Roll for Significant Gains in Advanced Placement® Access and
Student Performance
[Boulder, CO] – Boulder Valley School District is one of 539 school districts across 44 of the 50 states in the U.S. and Canada being honored by the College Board with placement on the 3rd Annual AP® District Honor Roll for simultaneously increasing access to Advance Placement® course work while increasing the percentage of students earning scores of 3 or higher on AP Exams. Achieving both of these goals is the ideal scenario for a district’s AP program because it indicates that the district is successfully identifying motivated, academically prepared students who are likely to benefit most from rigorous AP course work. Since 2010, BVSD has increased the number of students participating in AP by 7 percent while improving the percentage of students earning AP Exam scores of 3 or higher by 1 percent.
“It’s an honor for our district to be recognized for the important work that our educators are doing and a testament to how hard many of our students are willing to work to achieve academic success,” said Dr. Bruce Messinger, BVSD Superintendent.
Helping more students learn at a higher level and earn higher AP scores is an objective of all members of the AP community. More than 90 percent of colleges and universities across the U.S. offer college credit, advanced placement or both for a score of 3 or above on an AP Exam – which can potentially save students and their families thousands of dollars in college tuition.
About the College Board
The College Board is a mission-driven-not-for-profit organization that connects students to college success and opportunity. Founded in 1900, the College Board was created to expand access to higher education. Today, the membership association is made up of over 6,000 of the world’s leading educational institutions and is dedicated to promoting excellence and equity in education. For further information, visit www.collegeboard.org.
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