Posts tagged increase
CU study: less hail may increase flooding on Front Range
Jan 9th
FROM COLORADO’S FRONT RANGE BY 2070
Summertime hail could all but disappear from the eastern flank of Colorado’s Rocky Mountains by 2070, says a new study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Less hail damage could be good news for gardeners and farmers, said lead author Kelly Mahoney, a research scientist at CIRES, but a shift from hail to rain can also mean more runoff, which could raise the risk of flash floods. “In this region of elevated terrain, hail may lessen the risk of flooding because it takes awhile to melt,” Mahoney said. “Decision makers may not want to count on that in the future.”
For the new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, Mahoney and her colleagues used “downscaling” techniques to try to understand how climate change might affect hail-producing weather patterns across Colorado.
The research focused on storms involving pea-sized and smaller hailstones on Colorado’s Front Range, a region that stretches from the foothill communities of Colorado Springs, Denver and Fort Collins up to the Continental Divide. Colorado’s most damaging hailstorms tend to occur further east and involve larger hailstones not examined in this study.
In the summer in Colorado’s Front Range above about 7,500 feet, precipitation commonly falls as hail. Decision makers concerned about the safety of mountain dams and flood risk have been interested in how climate change may affect the amount and nature of precipitation in the region.
Mahoney and her colleagues began exploring that question with results from two climate models, which assumed that levels of climate-warming greenhouse gases will continue to increase in the future, from about 390 parts per million in the atmosphere today to about 620 parts per million in 2070.
But the weather processes that form hail, like thunderstorms, occur on much smaller scales than can be reproduced by global climate models. So the team “downscaled” the global model results twice: first to regional-scale models that can take regional topography and other details into account, then again to weather-scale models that can resolve individual storms and even the cloud processes that create hail. The regional-scale topography step was completed as part of NCAR’s North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.
Finally, the team compared the hailstorms of the future, from 2041 to 2070, to those of the past, from 1971 to 2000, as captured by the same sets of downscaled models. Results were similar in experiments with both climate models.
“We found a near elimination of hail at the surface,” Mahoney said.
In the future, increasingly intense storms may actually produce more hail inside clouds, the team found. However, because those relatively small hailstones fall through a warmer atmosphere, they melt quickly, falling as rain at the surface or evaporating back into the atmosphere. In some regions, simulated hail fell through an additional 1,500 feet of above-freezing air in the future as compared with the past.
The research team also found evidence that precipitation events over Colorado become more extreme in the future, while changes in hail may depend on the size of the hailstones — results that will be explored in more detail in ongoing work.
Mahoney’s postdoctoral research was supported by the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise, or PACE, program administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and funded by CIRES Western Water Assessment, NOAA and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. PACE connects young climate scientists with real-world problems such as those faced by water resource managers.
Co-authors of the new paper include James Scott and Joseph Barsugli of CIRES and NOAA, Michael Alexander of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and Gregory Thompson of NCAR.
Boulder County kids get $$ for health
Dec 30th
Boulder County Healthy Kids initiative helps families secure preventative healthcare, leading to healthier families and fewer intensive, costly services
Boulder County, Colo. – Colorado’s Medicaid Performance Bonus has nearly doubled for 2011, reflecting the crucial work being done by entities like Boulder County in getting children enrolled in the federal program.
In 2009, President Obama signed into law a reauthorization of the Children’s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP) that included a Performance Bonus incentive for states that succeed in enrolling Medicaid-eligible children above target levels. U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sibelius announced on Wednesday that Colorado will receive over $26 million in bonus Medicaid funding. The state received $13.7 million in 2010.
Colorado’s award was the third largest in the U.S., behind only Maryland and Virginia. This year, the state achieved a “Tier 2” bonus payment by exceeding target enrollment by more than 10%, an accomplishment which is rewarded at a higher rate.
States that qualify for bonuses have used strategies like cutting red tape and streamlining procedures to make enrollment easier. Boulder County’s recent focus on getting adults and children enrolled in Medicaid and CHP+, Colorado’s low-cost health plan for children, has contributed significantly to the state’s overall increase. Over the past four years, Boulder County’s Medicaid enrollment has increased 73%. In comparison, during this same period the ten largest Colorado counties have seen a 51% rise in enrollment numbers and Maximus (the state’s Medicaid and CHP+ contractor) has had a 42% increase.
One of the reasons for this difference is Boulder County Healthy Kids (BCHK), an outreach initiative which was launched in July 2008. BCHK works to improve child health by linking all eligible children, families, and pregnant women in Boulder County to available benefits and health coverage options. BCHK has created partnerships with both the Boulder Valley and St. Vrain School Districts, Salud Family Health Centers in Longmont, and Clinica Family Health Services in Boulder.
The program has stationed eligibility technicians in these locations to help identify need and enroll children and families. It is part of an early intervention model that Boulder County’s Housing and Human Services Department has implemented along with community partners and non-profits. The belief is that the earlier those in need access services, the better it is for them and for the community, as more intensive services down the line become more difficult and more expensive. Since 2008, BCHK has helped nearly 6,500 clients enroll in Medicaid and CHP+.
Boulder County Health Kids Manager Mae Hsu notes BCHK’s success rate. “We know that 98% of families who apply for medical benefits through Healthy Kids secure Medicaid or CHP+ coverage,” she says. “A big reason for that is our staff, who aim to make the enrollment process smooth and easy by helping families obtain all the documentation and information necessary for their applications.” In addition, she adds, through funding from the Colorado Health Foundation and The Colorado Trust, BCHK is able to assist families who are unable to pay the CHP+ enrollment fee.
The National Center for Health Statistics reports that since the Medicaid Performance Bonus was enacted, an additional 1.2 million children have been added to health insurance rolls around the U.S. At the same time, the Colorado Health Foundation’s 2010 Health Report Card indicated that while the trend is also positive for the Centennial State, in terms of getting its children insured, Colorado still ranks 44th in the U.S., with 105,000 of its children without health insurance.
Boulder County Housing and Human Services Director Frank Alexander stresses that while he is happy to see the federal recognition of Colorado’s and Boulder County’s efforts to turn this around, much work remains to be done. “It’s heartening to know that our proactive, preventive approach to connecting those in need in our community with services is working,” Alexander says. “But we still have large numbers of uninsured children and families who need to know where to go now for help, so we will continue to reach out to them in new and innovative ways.”

























