CU News
News from the University of Colorado in Boulder.
CU team measures climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa
Oct 23rd
Study plays down but does not eliminate climate variability as a factor
While a new study led by the University of Colorado Boulder shows the risk of human conflict in East Africa increases somewhat with hotter temperatures and drops a bit with higher precipitation, it concludes that socioeconomic, political and geographic factors play a much more substantial role than climate change.
According to CU-Boulder geography Professor John O’Loughlin, the new CU-Boulder study undertaken with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder is an attempt to clarify the often-contradictory debate on whether climate change is affecting armed conflicts in Africa. “We wanted to get beyond the specific idea and hype of climate wars,” he said. “The idea was to bring together a team perspective to see if changes in rainfall and temperature led to more conflict in vulnerable areas of East Africa.”
The research team examined extensive climate datasets from nine countries in East Africa, including the Horn of Africa, between 1990 and 2009: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. The team also used a dataset containing more than 16,000 violent conflicts in those countries during that time period, parsing out more specific information on conflict location and under what type of political, social, economic and geographic conditions each incident took place.
The study, which included changes in precipitation and temperature over continuous six-month periods from 1949 to 2009, also showed there was no climate effect on East African conflicts during normal and drier precipitation periods or during periods of average and cooler temperatures, said O’Loughlin.
Moderate increases in temperature reduced the risk of conflict slightly after controlling for the influence of social and political conditions, but very hot temperatures increased the risk of conflict, said O’Loughlin. Unusually wet periods also reduced the risk of conflict, according to the new study.
“The relationship between climate change and conflict in East Africa is incredibly complex and varies hugely by country and time period,” he said. “The simplistic arguments we hear on both sides are not accurate, especially those by pessimists who talk about ‘climate wars’. Compared to social, economic and political factors, climate factors adding to conflict risk are really quite modest.”
The results are being published online Oct. 22 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Co-authors on the study include CU-Boulder Research Associate Frank Witmer and graduate student Andrew Linke as well as three scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric research — Arlene Laing, Andrew Gettelman and Jimy Dudhia. The National Science Foundation funded the study.
Much of the information on the 16,359 violent events in East Africa from 1990 to 2009 came from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset, or ACLED, directed by Clionadh Raleigh of Trinity College in Dublin. The database covers individual conflicts from 1997 to 2009 in Africa, parts of Asia and Haiti – more than 60,000 violent incidents to date. Raleigh started the data collection while earning her doctorate at CU in 2007 under O’Loughlin.
In addition, more than a dozen CU-Boulder undergraduates spent thousands of hours combing online information sources like LexisNexis — a corporation that pioneered the electronic accessibility of legal and newspaper documents — in order to fill in details of individual violent conflicts by East African countries from 1990 to 1997. The student work was funded by the NSF’s Research Experiences for Undergraduates program.
The CU students coded each conflict event with very specific data, including geographic location coordinates, dates, people and descriptive classifications. The event information was then aggregated into months and into 100-kilometer grid cells that serve as the units of analysis for quantitative modeling.
Each conflict grid also was coded by socioeconomic and political characteristics like ethnic leadership, distance to an international border, capital city, local population size, well-being as measured by infant mortality, the extent of political rights, presidential election activity, road network density, the health of vegetation and crop conditions.
“The effects of climate variability on conflict risk is different in different countries,” O’Loughlin said. “Typically conflicts are very local and quite confined. The effects of climate on conflict in Ethiopia, for example, are different than those in Tanzania or Somalia. The idea that there is a general ‘African effect’ for conflict is wrong.”
The researchers used a variety of complex statistical calculations to assess the role of climate in violent conflict in East Africa, including regression models and a technique to uncover nonlinear influences and decrease “noise,” said O’Loughlin, also a faculty member at CU-Boulder’s Institute of Behavioral Science.
One component of the methods used by the team extracts predictions of individual instances of conflict from the statistical model and systematically compared them with the actual observations of conflict in the data, “a rigorous validity check,” he said.
Catastrophic conflicts like those in the “Great Lakes region” — Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo — since the 1990s and the war with the Lord’s Resistance Army led by terrorist Joseph Kony that has been running since the late 1980s in northern Uganda and neighboring regions are marked with large red swaths on the maps.
Legacies of violence are extremely important for understanding and explaining unrest, he said. “Violence nearby and prior violence in the locality, especially for heavily populated areas, are the strongest predictors of conflict.”
Ongoing work is extending the study to all of sub-Saharan Africa since 1980 with a database of 63,000 violent events. Preliminary results from the work confirm the East African climate effects of higher than normal temperatures are increasing conflict risk.
CU scientist receives L’Oréal-UNESCO For Women in Science award
Oct 23rd
Deborah Jin, an adjoint professor of physics at the University of Colorado Boulder and a fellow of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, has been awarded the L’Oréal-UNESCO For Women in Science award.
Jin also is a fellow of JILA, a joint institute of CU-Boulder and NIST located on the CU campus. She teaches both undergraduate and graduate students and was one of five recipients who each will receive $100,000 at an awards ceremony in Paris next March. She was the only recipient in North America.
Jin was cited by the awards jury “for having been the first to cool down molecules so much that she can observe chemical reactions in slow motion, which may help further understanding of molecular processes which are important for medicine or new energy sources.” The long-sought milestone was achieved at JILA in 2008.
CU-Boulder Adjoint Professor of Physics
The 15th Women in Science laureates were honored for demonstrating exceptionally original approaches to fundamental research in the physical sciences. The awards jury was chaired by Ahmed Zewail, winner of the 1999 Nobel Prize in chemistry and a professor of chemistry and physics at the California Institute of Technology.
The other 2013 laureates are:
• Professor Francisca Nneka Okeke, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria) for her significant contributions to the understanding of daily variations of the ion currents in the upper atmosphere which may further our understanding of climate change.
• Professor Pratibha Gai, University of York (United Kingdom) for ingeniously modifying her electron microscope so that she was able to observe chemical reactions occurring at surface atoms of catalysts which will help scientists in their development of new medicines or new energy sources.
• Professor Reiko Kuroda, Tokyo University of Science (Japan) for discovering the functional importance of the difference between left-handed and right-handed molecules which has wide applications including research on neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s.
• Professor Marcia Barbosa, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre (Brazil) For discovering one of the peculiarities of water which may lead to better understanding of how earthquakes occur and how proteins fold which is important for the treatment of diseases.
“These five outstanding women scientists have given the world a better understanding of how nature works,” said UNESCO Director-General Irina Bokova. “Their pioneering research and discoveries have changed the way we think in various areas of the physical sciences and opened new frontiers in science and technology. Such key developments have the potential to transform our society. Their work, their dedication, serves as an inspiration to us all.”
Jin has been an adjoint professor of physics at CU-Boulder since 1997. She earned her bachelor’s degree in physics from Princeton University and a doctorate from the University of Chicago.
Jin was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2005 and was named a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2007.
She is the winner of numerous other awards, including the William Proctor Prize for Scientific Achievement in 2009, the Benjamin Franklin Medal in Physics in 2008, the I.I Rabi Prize of the American Physical Society in 2005, a John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Fellowship also known as the “genius grant” in 2003 and a Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers in 2000.
Established in 1998, the L’Oréal-UNESCO partnership is a long-term commitment to recognizing women in science and supporting scientific vocations. For Women in Science has grown into a global program that includes international, national and regional fellowships and an international network of more than 1,300 women in 106 countries.
For more information on the Women in Science Awards visit http://www.forwomeninscience.com.
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CU police: Rash of thefts plague campus
Oct 22nd
The University of Colorado Police Department has received reports of a high number of thefts during the month of October. Since Oct. 2, UCPD has recorded 15 cases of a suspect or suspects stealing laptops and wallets from common areas or unlocked offices. The thief has targeted academic building offices, as well as the University Memorial Center. The following buildings have seen thefts in recent weeks: Benson Earth Sciences, Continuing Education, Engineering Center, Environmental Design, Imig Music, Koelbel Building, Speech, Language and Hearing Sciences, University Theatre, Visual Arts Complex and Woodbury Arts and Sciences. For a Google Map with dates, locations and stolen items, see http://bit.ly/Oct2012CUthefts.
From Oct. 1-18 this year, UCPD has recorded 86 stolen pieces of property. During that same period last year, 68 items were stolen. CU Police have also seen a higher number of bike thefts in recent weeks. In nearly all cases, thieves have cut cable locks.
“Officers will be increasing their presence around bike racks and academic buildings, but we need the public’s help, too,” said CU Police spokesman Ryan Huff. “These are crimes of opportunity. Leaving your valuable items unattended or unprotected makes you a target for theft.”
The Police Department offers the following safety tips:
- Always keep your office locked when unattended. That includes when leaving for lunch or using the restroom.
- In common areas, such as dining facilities, libraries or the University Memorial Center, never leave laptops, mobile phones or other valuable items unattended.
- Record serial numbers of bikes, desktop computers, laptops, mobile phones and other items that could be stolen. If these items are recovered, it is easier to return them to you.
- Register your bike at the CU Bike Stations – east of the UMC or west of the Engineering Center. Register your laptop at the Telecommunications Center, also east of the UMC.
- For more crime prevention tips, see http://police.colorado.edu/crime-prevention-and-safety
