CU News
News from the University of Colorado in Boulder.
CU study: less hail may increase flooding on Front Range
Jan 9th
FROM COLORADO’S FRONT RANGE BY 2070
Summertime hail could all but disappear from the eastern flank of Colorado’s Rocky Mountains by 2070, says a new study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of Colorado Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Less hail damage could be good news for gardeners and farmers, said lead author Kelly Mahoney, a research scientist at CIRES, but a shift from hail to rain can also mean more runoff, which could raise the risk of flash floods. “In this region of elevated terrain, hail may lessen the risk of flooding because it takes awhile to melt,” Mahoney said. “Decision makers may not want to count on that in the future.”
For the new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, Mahoney and her colleagues used “downscaling” techniques to try to understand how climate change might affect hail-producing weather patterns across Colorado.
The research focused on storms involving pea-sized and smaller hailstones on Colorado’s Front Range, a region that stretches from the foothill communities of Colorado Springs, Denver and Fort Collins up to the Continental Divide. Colorado’s most damaging hailstorms tend to occur further east and involve larger hailstones not examined in this study.
In the summer in Colorado’s Front Range above about 7,500 feet, precipitation commonly falls as hail. Decision makers concerned about the safety of mountain dams and flood risk have been interested in how climate change may affect the amount and nature of precipitation in the region.
Mahoney and her colleagues began exploring that question with results from two climate models, which assumed that levels of climate-warming greenhouse gases will continue to increase in the future, from about 390 parts per million in the atmosphere today to about 620 parts per million in 2070.
But the weather processes that form hail, like thunderstorms, occur on much smaller scales than can be reproduced by global climate models. So the team “downscaled” the global model results twice: first to regional-scale models that can take regional topography and other details into account, then again to weather-scale models that can resolve individual storms and even the cloud processes that create hail. The regional-scale topography step was completed as part of NCAR’s North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program.
Finally, the team compared the hailstorms of the future, from 2041 to 2070, to those of the past, from 1971 to 2000, as captured by the same sets of downscaled models. Results were similar in experiments with both climate models.
“We found a near elimination of hail at the surface,” Mahoney said.
In the future, increasingly intense storms may actually produce more hail inside clouds, the team found. However, because those relatively small hailstones fall through a warmer atmosphere, they melt quickly, falling as rain at the surface or evaporating back into the atmosphere. In some regions, simulated hail fell through an additional 1,500 feet of above-freezing air in the future as compared with the past.
The research team also found evidence that precipitation events over Colorado become more extreme in the future, while changes in hail may depend on the size of the hailstones — results that will be explored in more detail in ongoing work.
Mahoney’s postdoctoral research was supported by the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise, or PACE, program administered by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and funded by CIRES Western Water Assessment, NOAA and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. PACE connects young climate scientists with real-world problems such as those faced by water resource managers.
Co-authors of the new paper include James Scott and Joseph Barsugli of CIRES and NOAA, Michael Alexander of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and Gregory Thompson of NCAR.
CU team to turn on “green” lights in Haiti
Jan 5th
CU ENGINEERING TEAM TO SUPPORT
GREEN ENERGY IN HAITI
A team of University of Colorado Boulder engineers will travel to Haiti this month to support the growth of green energy on the two-year anniversary of the country’s devastating earthquake.
Engineering professors Alan Mickelson and Mike Hannigan and graduate student Matt Hulse will be in Haiti Jan. 8-16 to collaborate with the Neges Foundation school at Leogane to create a vocational training program on the installation, operation and maintenance of renewable energy systems.
“I’m eager to learn about the people of Haiti and the services that they would like energy systems to provide,” said Hannigan, an assistant professor of mechanical engineering. “Historically, the development of energy systems has shaped nations and economies, so the timing is right to pass along what we have learned about those energy systems that are sustainable.”
The Jan. 12, 2010, earthquake that struck Haiti destroyed what little electricity infrastructure had existed in the country, plunging towns across the country into total darkness and forcing households to rely on high-cost diesel generators for power, according to news reports. As a result, families are unable to study or work at night, and the number of assaults, particularly against women and girls, has increased.
Studies point to Haiti’s great potential for renewable energy, including solar, hydro and wind power. “The present lack of a Haitian power grid cries out for a distributed solution — that is, one that grows from small, localized, renewable energy sources,” said Mickelson, associate professor of electrical, computer and energy engineering.
To address these issues, the Engineering for Developing Communities project will:
- Develop a curriculum for vocational training on the operation and maintenance of self-contained, adaptable power sources, and electrical operations and maintenance with a focus on green energy systems.
- Build local capacity to provide vocational training on renewable energy systems using a “train-the-trainers” approach.
- Identify a viable system to create sustainable access to renewable energy that will meet basic household energy needs.
- Develop a strategy for the sustainable scale-up and replication of energy and infrastructure vocational training to support reconstruction efforts, with a focus on private sector investment.
About $35,000 has been provided for the initiative by CU-Boulder’s Mortenson Center for Engineering in Developing Communities, the IEEE Foundation and the CU-Boulder Outreach Committee. The Mortenson Center is seeking additional funding to build upon the initiative and develop additional vocational training curriculum on sustainable and disaster-resistant design and construction.
The Mortenson Center was founded to promote integrated, participatory and sustainable solutions to the engineering challenges of the developing world, with a focus on clean drinking water, sanitation and hygiene; energy; sustainable and disaster-resistant building materials and shelter; and cook stoves and indoor air quality. For more information, go tohttp://ceae.colorado.edu/mc-edc.
Boulder citizens, youth give high marks to city in survey
Jan 5th
2011 Community Survey results available
Results of the 2011 Community Survey that was conducted this fall are now available online and will be presented to City Council at its regularly scheduled meeting at 6 p.m. on Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2012. Copies of the report are also available in the Main Library, 1001 Arapahoe Ave.
In September and October, surveys were mailed to more than 3,000 households and more than 400 University of Colorado students living in on-campus dormitories. Surveys could also be completed online and were available in Spanish. A total of 971 surveys were returned, which resulted in a 33 percent response rate. That is considered a good rate of return.
The survey asked people about their priorities for the city, quality of life, and their overall satisfaction with government services. Survey responses indicated:
- Perceptions of the quality of life, quality of neighborhoods and the sense of community in Boulder remain high;
- Employment and business related ratings were also high, with 77 percent of respondents rating Boulder as “very good’ or “good” as a place to work, and 69 percent rating Boulder as “very good” or “good” as a place to do business; and,
- Respondents’ priorities for City Council included energy, housing and business development.
The survey results also provided information about public participation and how people would like to obtain information about meetings, issues and programs:
- Approximately 25 percent of respondents said that they had attended a public meeting about city matters in the last year, and about 25 percent had watched a City Council meeting on the city’s municipal Channel 8.
- The Camera (72%), direct mailings (65%), and the city’s website (55%) – www.bouldercolorado.gov – were the most common sources of public information from the city.
The 2011 survey included additional outreach to Spanish speakers through community organizations, and 43 completed surveys were received. Priorities and concerns for these respondents included safety, affordable shopping, housing, adult education opportunities and activities for youth.
A slightly revised survey was also distributed to Boulder youth to help the city determine their concerns and needs. A total of 234 returned surveys indicated that youth priorities include homelessness, improving activities for young people, jobs, discrimination, bike safety and facilities, and the environment.
Survey results will be used to inform the budget process, plan for future projects, develop community outreach and various other ways to help make Boulder a better place to live and work. A complete list of results, responses and methodologies is available at www.BoulderColorado.gov > Hot Topics > 2011 Community Survey Results.
The survey was conducted by Boulder-based National Research Center Inc. Results were weighted and the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points from the information that would have been obtained if all Boulder adults were surveyed.